Collaborative Proposal: The Role of Arctic Amplification in Modifying Mid-latitude Atmospheric Circulation and Promoting Extreme Weather Events
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Project details
Intellectual Merit: recent work has suggested and demonstrated a mechanism connecting Arctic Amplification (AA - enhanced Arctic warming) with an increased probability of extreme weather events in northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, as well as a feedback to arctic wind patterns that drive further ice loss. This study will extend this work using output from reanalyses, model simulations from the CMIP5 archive, and experimental CESM model runs to investigate how and why the ongoing loss of arctic sea ice and high-latitude terrestrial snow cover may cause mid-latitude weather patterns to change. Past and projected patterns in 500 hPa heights will be analyzed using a combination of Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) 'a neural-network-based technique that reduces large data sets to their representative patterns' a new meridional circulation index, and an extreme weather index to address the hypothesis that Arctic Amplification of past and future global climate change promotes circulation patterns that favor extreme weather events in middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The PIs suggest that changes in the energy budget of the arctic surface, because of sea-ice loss and earlier snow melt on high-latitude land, reduce meridional thickness gradients, which induce generally weaker zonal flow aloft and higher amplitude circulation features. They think these upper-level flow patterns slow the eastward progression of large-scale atmospheric Rossby waves, favoring more persistent weather conditions that increase the probability of extreme weather such as cold-air outbreaks, heat waves, droughts, and heavy precipitation. They believe the primary physical mechanism driving the change is an enhanced and seasonally varying arctic heating: in fall/winter it is ocean-based associated with substantial sea ice loss, while in warmer months it is land-based due primarily to earlier snow melt and reduced soil moisture. Higher-amplitude flow trajectories may also exacerbate sea-ice and snow-cover loss, thereby constituting a positive feedback loop. Because extreme weather events, such as temperature and precipitation extremes, are often caused by high-amplitude, slow-moving upper-level circulation patterns, this analysis will focus on detecting and characterizing these patterns, interpreting the weather conditions associated with them, and identifying regions that are likely to be affected. This study attempts to connect arctic change with the rest of the global climate system. Broader Impacts: Changes in extreme weather as a result of greenhouse gas accumulation will directly and dramatically affect millions of people across the globe, thus a better understanding and more accurate future projection of changes in the frequency, location, and severity of droughts, floods, and temperature extremes are urgently needed by decision-makers at all levels of society. Preliminary work has already attracted world-wide attention via articles in prominent newspapers, radio interviews, interviews for the Weather Channel, magazine articles, and numerous online blogs. This will also be an opportunity for a new post-doc. The PIs will prepare a module for the NSF-supported 'Beyond Penguins and Polar Bears' project for K-5 teachers. Both PIs make frequent public and school presentations on climate-change related issues, and because extreme weather is so relevant to society at large, results from the proposed study will figure prominently into these presentations.
Title | Project start | End date | Organisation | Department | Project study region |
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NNA Track 2: PredictFest: To Build Capacity for Arctic Stakeholders in Need of Multi-Scale Predictions | 01.01.2020 | 31.12.2022 | University of Alaska | University of Alaska Fairbanks, Department | |
AMAP | 01.03.2020 | 15.12.2020 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
NNA: Bridging the Atomistic Deformation Mechanisms to the Microscopic Adhesive-to-Cohesive Fracture at Ice-Metal Interfaces | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | Idaho State University | Idaho State University, dept. | |
GeoBasis-Zackenberg 2020 | 01.04.2020 | 31.03.2021 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Denmark |
Deciphering the role of sea-ice microorganisms on cloud processes in the Arctic | 01.06.2019 | 30.05.2021 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Denmark |
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Scientific Program Overview: Troposphere High latitude INhibitors to multi-scale sea ICE Predictability (THINICE) | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2021 | University of Oklahoma | University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, dept. | |
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Assessing Transport Pathways into the Arctic and Their Efficiencies | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | |
Collaborative Research: Improving research coordination for Summit Station and the Dry-Snow Zone of Greenland | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | University of New Hampshire | University of New Hampshire, Department | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research: Improving research coordination for Summit Station and the Dry-Snow Zone of Greenland | 01.01.2019 | 31.12.2022 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland Ice Sheet |
2019 Undergraduate Greenland Workshop | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2019 | University of Michigan | University of Michigan, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Timing and Paleoceanographic Impacts of the Onset of Arctic-Baffin Bay Throughflow | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Analysis to evaluate and improve model performance in the Central Arctic: Unique perspectives from autonomous platforms during MOSAiC | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2022 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Arctic (entire region) |
GeoBasis | 01.04.2019 | 31.03.2020 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
ICOS atmospheric | 29.11.2017 | 08.12.2022 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Environmental Science, Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Polarsonde: A Meteorological Sensor To Detect Aircraft Icing Hazard | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2013 | University of Adelaide | The University of Adelaide, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2017 | City University of New York | City University of New York (CUNY), dept. | |
Identifying the Origins of Summertime Arctic Cloud Condensation Nuclei Using Online Fine Aerosol Composition Measurements | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Arctic (entire region) |
Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | University of California | University of California, Santa Barbara, dept. | |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research: Soil-Snow-Atmosphere Exchange of Mercury in the Interior Arctic Tundra | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2017 | University of Massachusetts | University of Massachusetts, Lowell, dept. | |
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Collaborative Research-HIARC: Anthropogenic Heat Islands in the Arctic. Windows to the Future of the Regional Climates, Ecosystems and Societies | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2019 | George Washington University | George Washington University, dept. | |
Reconstruction of climate at the Norse Settlements of Greenland over the last two millennia using organic biomarkers in lake sediments | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | University of Massachusetts | University of Massachusetts, Amherst, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | State University of New York | State University of New York at Stony Brook, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | University of Rochester | University of Rochester, Dept | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | |
The role of uncertainty in waveguide perturbations on midlatitude predictability with DOWNSTREAM | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | State University of New York | State University of New York at Albany, dept. | |
Sensitivity of the mid-latitude waveguide to the dynamics and observations of Arctic tropopause-based vortices | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | University of Oklahoma | University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, dept. | |
High Resolution, Active Remote Sensing of Cloud Microphysics at Summit, Greenland with Polarized Raman Lidar | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2018 | University of Leeds | University of Leeds, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2017 | University of Tennessee | University of Tennessee, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2014 | Washington State University | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | City University of New York | City University of New York (CUNY), dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Maryland | University of Maryland College Park, dept. | |
Impacts of distant pollution sources on microphysical transitions in Arctic clouds | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Utah | University of Utah, dept. | |
RUI: Quantifying and Predicting the Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the State of the Arctic | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | United States Naval Academy | United States Naval Academy, dept. | |
North East Greenland Automated Weather Station and GPS | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2017 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland Ice Sheet |
A Glacier Dynamics and Ice-Ocean Interactions Perspective for IceBridge Science | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2016 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland, Mid-West |
Greenland AWS technology | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2018 | University of California | University of California, Irvine, dept. | Greenland, North-West |
Collection and Analysis of GEOSummit Aerosols | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2021 | University of California | University of California, Davis, dept. | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Investigation of the mechanisms that drive intraseasonal Arctic surface air temperature variability during the winter | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | Penn State University | Penn State University, Department | |
Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic - Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Department | |
Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic - Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2020 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Simulated Arctic Freshwater System in CMIP5 Models, the CESM Large Ensemble, and Forced Simulations | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | McGill University | McGill University, Dept | |
Collaborative Research: The Combined Influence of sea ice and snow cover on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Climate Variability | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department | |
Collaborative Research: An examination of human social and cultural adaptation through archaeological and paleoclimate data from the Aleutian Islands | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | Western Washington University | Western Washington University, dept. | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dept | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2018 | Penn State University | Penn State University, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dept | |
Facilitating Arctic System Science using the Community Earth System Model | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2017 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | Rutgers University New Brunswick | Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department | |
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The Seasonal Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Mechanisms and Robustness across Models | 01.01.2012 | 31.12.2015 | National Center for Atmospheric Research | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Department | |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | Greenland, Mid-West |
NNA: NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: The Integrated Characterization of Clouds, Energy, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit, Aerosol-Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
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NNA: AON: EAGER: Closing the Water Vapor Exchange Budget Between the Ice Sheets and Free Atmosphere | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2020 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland Ice Sheet |
Atmospheric Hydrocarbons at GEOSummit, Greenland, as Tracers for Climate Change, Air Pollution Transport, and Oxidation Chemistry in the Arctic | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2019 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Collaborative Research: Characterizing the Roles of Atmospheric Structure and Clouds on the Radiation and Precipitation Budgets at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Carbon Monoxide in the Pre-Industrial Arctic Atmosphere from Ice Cores at Summit, Greenland | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2017 | Desert Research Institute | Desert Research Institute, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Simulated Arctic Freshwater System in CMIP5 Models, the CESM Large Ensemble, and Forced Simulations | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2018 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
Collaborative Research-HIARC: Anthropogenic Heat Islands in the Arctic. Windows to the Future of the Regional Climates, Ecosystems and Societies | 01.01.2015 | 31.12.2019 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
The Impact of the Stratosphere on Arctic Climate | 01.01.2016 | 31.12.2019 | Columbia University | Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory | |
Collaborative Research: Science coordination office for Summit Station/ISI Observatory and the Greenland Traverse | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2018 | Dartmouth College | Dartmouth College, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Science coordination office for Summit Station/ISI Observatory and the Greenland Traverse | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2018 | University of New Hampshire | University of New Hampshire, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Refining Long-term Climate Records from the Renland Ice Cap | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2017 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-East |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Proposal: The Role of Arctic Amplification in Modifying Mid-latitude Atmospheric Circulation and Promoting Extreme Weather Events | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | |
Collaborative Research: Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) | 01.01.2014 | 31.12.2018 | University of Wisconsin | University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center | Greenland, Mid-West |
Collaborative Research: Assessing the Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass and Energy Balance | 01.01.2013 | 31.12.2016 | University of Colorado Boulder | University of Colorado Boulder, Department | |
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Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes | 01.01.2018 | 31.12.2021 | University of Washington | School of Oceanography | |
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GeoBasis-Zackenberg 2018 | 16.04.2018 | 01.11.2018 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
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Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) | 01.07.2018 | 31.07.2018 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Evaluation of existing measurements in 2015 and 2016; new measurements of Short lived greenhouse forcers in 2017 and 2018 (EVAM-SLCF) and 2017-2019 | 01.08.2017 | 31.07.2019 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
METAPOL (Meteorological and pollutant observations in the High Arctic) | 10.08.2017 | 20.08.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
ObsArktis | 03.07.2017 | 21.08.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC) | Greenland, North-East |
Arctic monitoring Assessment program | 01.01.2017 | 31.12.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
MaxDOAS | 15.04.2017 | 29.04.2017 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
Snow data collection on Greenland scale | 25.02.2014 | 20.03.2014 | Aarhus University (AU) | Arctic Research Centre (ARC) | Greenland, North-West |
Microbial atmospheric-terrestrial coupling driven by long distance transport and deposition | 11.04.2015 | 03.05.2015 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Bioscience | Greenland, North-East |
Long-range transport of particle pollution to the Arctic and physical properties of Arctic aerosols | 29.04.2015 | 22.05.2015 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
The dynamics of mercury in the Arctic atmosphere | 25.02.2016 | 15.05.2016 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |
The cloud forming potential of atmospheric particles | 01.04.2016 | 30.04.2016 | Aarhus University (AU) | Department of Environmental Science | Greenland, North-East |